Bitcoin is wrapping up its most impressive quarter since 2024, leaving gold and US equities far behind despite climbing bond yields.
Data from Bitfinex and CoinGlass show that the leading cryptocurrency has climbed roughly 43% throughout the third quarter, setting it up for its third-largest quarterly expansion since US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched in January 2024, and its second-best third-quarter performance since 2013.
After starting July near $58,600 on the back of three consecutive quarterly losses, Bitcoin gathered momentum through August and September. This acceleration was driven by a return of institutional capital and the steady absorption of sellers who had spent much of 2026 underwater at increasingly higher price points.
In comparison, traditional assets barely moved over the same three-month window concluding Sept. 29. StatMuse figures indicate the Nasdaq Composite rose approximately 5%, the S&P 500 added about 4%, and gold increased by less than 2%.
Ethereum stood out as a notable exception, however, outpacing Bitcoin as the wider cryptocurrency market recovery expanded beyond just the market leader.
Bitcoin’s outperformance picked up speed following Aug. 19, persisting even though a Treasury program designed to boost liquidity in longer-dated government debt failed to stop yields from climbing.
The Treasury Department announced it would at least double its maximum liquidity-support buyback size for longer maturities to $4 billion per operation, with these expanded purchases kicking off on Sept. 9.
Since that announcement, Bitcoin has advanced nearly 30%. Yet, over the quarter, the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 81 basis points and long-term borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs, increasing the performance hurdle for assets that generate no yield.
Wall Street money takes over from leverage
US spot Bitcoin ETFs delivered a fresh injection of capital just as financial conditions tightened across other sectors.
These investment funds shifted from roughly $5 billion in net outflows year-to-date at the end of July to about $1 billion in net inflows by late September, marking a roughly $6 billion turnaround over a two-month span.
This reversal peaked last week when the funds pulled in $2.39 billion—their biggest weekly haul since October 2025. Every trading session recorded positive flows, though daily demand cooled from $999 million on Sept. 21 down to about $135 million by Sept. 25.
Nexo analysts note that Bitcoin begins the fourth quarter supported by stronger spot demand and a healthier market structure. Nevertheless, the outlook still relies on sustained ETF investments, the successful digestion of overhead supply, and inflation staying low enough to keep the Federal Reserve from implementing further tightening.
Simultaneously, leveraged traders have been pulling back.
According to Bitfinex, total Bitcoin futures open interest dropped from above 700,000 BTC on Sept. 21 down to approximately 644,000, reaching its lowest mark since early January. This seven-day reduction of about 49,000 BTC represents the largest drop since October 2025, while CME open interest alone fell by 16,075 BTC on Monday to mark its third-largest single-day decline on record.
Additionally, futures premiums have compressed, and implied volatility remains close to a one-year low.
While this unwinding reduces the leverage that typically triggers cascading liquidation selloffs, it also strips away the speculative momentum capable of fueling sharp rallies. Consequently, more of the burden now falls on investors buying Bitcoin outright.
Evidence of this shift is visible around current price levels. Bitfinex calculates that the volume of Bitcoin with a cost basis spanning $82,500 to $84,000 nearly tripled to 306,000 tokens over a three-day window, as buyers soaked up coins unloaded by profitable holders below the market alongside newer investors cutting losses above it.
A 1.39 million Bitcoin wall waits above $85,000
Despite Bitcoin’s improving framework, a dense wall of potential sellers sits directly overhead.
Bitfinex estimates that investors hold roughly 1.39 million BTC purchased between $84,000 and $86,500. This group consists of long-term investors nearing breakeven as well as newer buyers whose holdings drifted underwater after Bitcoin pulled back from its Sept. 21 peak near $87,400.
This distribution creates ongoing selling pressure whenever prices test that zone.
CryptoQuant points out that Bitcoin reclaimed its 365-day moving average last week for the first time since March 2023. Historically, upward crossings of this metric have signaled transitions into bullish market cycles, whereas prolonged stays underneath it have aligned with weaker periods.
Bitcoin’s realized price—which tracks the estimated average cost basis for all circulating coins—has climbed to roughly $77,000 and remained stable throughout the recent rebound.
The primary question is whether fresh demand can chew through the supply resting above spot prices.
Bitfinex’s metric comparing ETF purchases to the roughly 450 daily newly mined Bitcoin dropped from 25.6 times issuance during the $999 million inflow day down to 1.8 times by Sept. 29. The organization calculates this ratio must climb back toward five times issuance—roughly $190 million in daily ETF demand—to absorb the overhead supply more rapidly.
A push past $85,000 would return roughly 760,000 BTC to a profitable status, driving Bitcoin’s supply-in-profit indicator back toward the 75% level that Bitfinex links to more robust bull-market phases. This metric dipped from 78.1% on Sept. 21 to 71.3% by Sept. 29.
Past this initial obstacle, Glassnode highlights another significant supply pocket between $88,000 and $90,000, followed by a key threshold near $96,700.
Even so, options market participants are positioned for a breakout. Nexo reports that Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio averaged 0.67 over the trailing two weeks, with December 25 expiry $140,000 calls forming the single largest position. Dealer positioning suggests the $95,000 to $97,000 band will serve as another major test if Bitcoin successfully breaks through the nearer supply barriers.
Bitcoin’s best season collides with 5% yields
Seasonality offers bulls another supporting argument as the market enters October.
Historically, the fourth quarter has delivered Bitcoin’s strongest performance, generating average gains between roughly 77% and 85% since 2013 depending on the dataset used. BloFin Research estimates that repeating its 77.07% historical average return from present levels would place Bitcoin close to $147,000, while its median fourth-quarter return of 47.73% points to roughly $123,000.
These calculations are strictly mechanical projections, and successive market cycles have historically produced progressively smaller percentage gains from their cycle lows.
Monetary policy represents a more immediate limitation.
Earlier this week, markets priced in about a 65% chance of another quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Cooler-than-expected inflation metrics released Wednesday reduced those odds to roughly 38%, underscoring how rapidly interest rate expectations can shift ahead of the central bank’s Oct. 27–28 meeting. A subsequent policy decision is slated for Dec. 8–9.
The events of Sept. 28 served as an early reminder of Bitcoin’s sensitivity to broader portfolio positioning. The Nasdaq-100, gold, and Bitcoin dropped simultaneously as investors cut risk across all asset classes—a behavior Nexo analysts described as characteristic of broad deleveraging rather than a traditional rotation into safe-haven assets.
According to Bitfinex, $81,300 stands as a vital support level beneath the current recovery. Persistent trading below that threshold, combined with fresh ETF outflows, could expose the realized price zone near $77,000.
Conversely, increased ETF momentum and a decisive break above $86,500 would position Bitcoin to challenge its yearly opening price around $87,700 before encountering the heavier supply cluster near $90,000.
The Oct. 2 US employment report will provide traders with additional economic insight prior to the next inflation figures and the Fed’s October meeting, all as Bitcoin steps into its historically strongest quarter with Treasury yields remaining above 5%.