Bitcoin’s upward movement is nearing a test of the $90,000 mark, driven by thinning sell-side liquidity and the reemergence of an infrequent accumulation pattern.
On Oct. 2, Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $87,000 after purchasers pushed past a sell wall near $85,000 that had previously halted multiple attempts to climb higher.
According to Glassnode, some of those sell orders were executed while the remainder were pulled back, resulting in a lighter concentration of asks around $87,000 and reduced visible liquidity just above that level.
Simultaneously, the bands on the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Accumulation Trend chart have started to narrow, bringing back a configuration observed ahead of two sharp rallies in 2025.
This setup provides an additional bullish indicator for a market that has successfully reclaimed several important cost-basis levels, although the small number of past instances means the pattern is far from definitive.
Past contractions offer a bullish, but limited, precedent
CryptoQuant notes that the ongoing contraction mirrors two instances from 2025 that led to substantial gains, giving traders a positive historical parallel as Bitcoin moves into October.
The Accumulation Trend monitors the buying and selling habits across various cohorts of Bitcoin owners, providing insight into whether supply is being absorbed or distributed. Narrowing bands on the chart have historically aligned with shifts in market momentum.
One such contraction occurred between April 17 and April 20, 2025, when Bitcoin traded close to $84,000. BTC subsequently rallied toward $109,000, and a separate contraction took place between March 5 and March 8 prior to another advance.
While these past events are too scarce to confirm the contraction as a dependable forecasting metric, they render the current occurrence more significant given that Bitcoin’s wider market structure has strengthened concurrently.
Bitwise reported this week that Bitcoin has recovered the vital cost-basis thresholds it monitors to signal transitions toward risk-on environments. These comprise the short-term holder cost basis around $73,000, a true market mean near $77,000, and the estimated average cost basis for spot exchange-traded fund investors at approximately $83,000.
Additionally, Bitcoin has advanced decisively past Bitwise’s $85,000 short-term holder realized-price band, steering the market into a distribution zone where price gains have historically proved harder to maintain.
Underwater Bitcoin holders crowd the path toward $100,000
With the $85,000 sell wall gone, Bitcoin is moving directly toward another potential supply barrier: investors nearing breakeven after enduring months of losses.
Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, calculates that BTC investors who purchased their coins between 18 months and two years ago carry an average cost basis near $88,350. The six-to-12-month cohort hovers around $89,200 and has remained underwater overall for nearly a year.
Although individual investors bought above or below these averages, the market’s approach to these cost bases forces many holders to make a new decision following a prolonged period in the red.
Some participants may utilize the price recovery to exit close to breakeven, whereas others might hold onto their assets or buy more to lower their average acquisition cost. The extent to which buyers absorb this returning supply will play a key role in deciding whether the rally can push past $90,000.
Bitwise’s valuation bands introduce another obstacle in nearly the exact same zone.
The asset manager places the next short-term holder reference benchmark at roughly $90,000—representing 1.5 standard deviations above the realized price—followed by the two-standard-deviation mark near $95,000. Historically, Bitcoin has traded above those specific thresholds on just 3.8% and 1.7% of days, respectively, within Bitwise’s data sample.
A separate Fibonacci model utilized by the firm highlights levels close to $92,000 and $100,000, compounding the concentration of technical and on-chain reference points throughout this area. Bitwise defines the $90,000 to $100,000 span as the upcoming region where multiple structural markers converge.
Options traders are positioning themselves around this identical corridor. Figures from Deribit indicate roughly $2.1 billion in Bitcoin call exposure at the $90,000 strike price, alongside $2.4 billion at $95,000 and $1.8 billion at $100,000.
This heavy concentration of calls reflects significant demand for upside exposure as Bitcoin tracks closer to those strike levels.
While their impact on the spot market will rely on expiration dates and dealer hedging strategies, the positioning demonstrates that traders have committed billions of dollars toward a push into the exact $90,000-to-$100,000 bracket identified by on-chain valuation metrics.
Leverage rebuilds as macro pressure eases
Bitcoin is advancing into this supply territory as speculative exposure picks up once more, supported by a favorable macroeconomic boost from Friday’s US employment report.
Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin’s open interest dropped to approximately $52 billion as September concluded, but derivatives activity has since started to recover, rising to about $56.2 billion during the first two days of October.
This roughly $4.2 billion increase occurred in tandem with Bitcoin climbing from around $83,500 to briefly surpass $87,000.
The rebound indicates that traders are re-establishing exposure after liquidating positions toward the end of September. Because open interest grew alongside the price of Bitcoin, fresh positions accompanied the upward movement, though this metric alone does not clarify whether traders are leaning long or short.
Bitcoin open interest finished September near its lowest point in a year, leaving room for speculative participation to build back up without immediately hitting prior extremes. Even so, rising funding rates make long positions costlier to maintain and heighten their vulnerability if the rally reverses.
The macroeconomic environment improved on Friday after US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, falling well short of the 90,000 jobs anticipated by economists. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, and payroll growth numbers for August were revised downward.
The report dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement another rate hike at its October meeting, causing Treasury yields to decline and US equities to climb. Following the release, futures markets priced the likelihood of an October rate increase at under 20%.
This shift removes an immediate headwind for Bitcoin’s advance, shifting the focus back to the stiffer test residing within the cryptocurrency market itself.
A sustained break above $90,000 would carry Bitcoin into territory that Bitwise already regards as historically overextended relative to recent investor cost bases. Pushing to $95,000 would place the asset in a price band exceeded on fewer than 2% of days within the firm’s historical sample, forcing buyers to absorb both returning holder supply and increasingly costly leveraged bets.
Failing to clear these hurdles would refocus attention downward toward $83,000, which marks Bitwise’s estimated average ETF investor cost basis and serves as the primary downside level bulls would need to defend.